Publications

2026 presented

Forecasting malaria incidence in Rwanda with Neural Controlled Differential Equations and optimal control

M. J. Muhindo, A. Nowakowski · Conference talk

XXXI National Conference on Applications of Mathematics in Biology and Medicine – International Edition (KKZMBM), Kościelisko, Poland, 15–19 Sept 2026 · Proceedings p. 21

Presents a continuous-time forecasting framework for district-level malaria incidence that handles irregularly sampled survey and surveillance data, coupled to an optimal-control layer for planning ITN, IRS and treatment interventions.
2026 in progress

Malaria, Economic Activity, and Public Intervention in Rwanda: A Dynamic Game Approach

M. J. Muhindo, A. Nowakowski · Journal article

Manuscript in preparation

Models the interaction between malaria transmission, household economic activity and government intervention in Rwanda as a dynamic game, deriving equilibrium intervention strategies and their effect on incidence and economic output.
2026 in progress

A calibrated SEIRS–SEI transmission model of malaria in Rwanda with optimal intervention scheduling

M. J. Muhindo, A. Nowakowski, D. Machowska · Journal article

Target: journal of mathematical biology

Calibrates a human–mosquito compartmental model to 30-district data (national fit error 4.2 %) and derives optimal ITN, IRS and treatment schedules by direct transcription.
2026 in progress

A reproducible district-level malaria dataset for Rwanda, 2000–2022

M. J. Muhindo · Data paper

Target: data journal

Describes the pipeline combining Malaria Atlas Project surfaces, DHS/MIS surveys and public climate data into a 30-district, 23-year panel.

Forecasting malaria incidence in Rwanda with Neural Controlled Differential Equations and optimal control

Malaria, Economic Activity, and Public Intervention in Rwanda: A Dynamic Game Approach

A calibrated SEIRS–SEI transmission model of malaria in Rwanda with optimal intervention scheduling

A reproducible district-level malaria dataset for Rwanda, 2000–2022